DC Advisory’s Global M&A Outlook 2026: Still Searching for Equilibrium

We first introduced our M&A Bear in 2020, hibernating in the COVID cave. And, but for a brief, and over-excited foray into the sun in 2021, it has remained there ever since. 

Only a year ago, we were predicting that a pro-business Trump administration would lead to a thaw that would allow our Bear to leave the cave and enjoy the warm Springtime of an improving M&A market.

But just as the Bear was opening its eyes and contemplating its liberation into the warming world, Liberation Day sent it slumbering back into the cave.

We are still searching for equilibrium in the M&A market – an equilibrium where the private equity flywheel is spinning fast, and private equity sells as many businesses as it buys – the flywheel equilibrium; and a valuation equilibrium where sellers’ expectations match their buyers’ valuations

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Review of 2025 

Q1 of 2025 had started positively - up 3% on Q1 2024ⁱ. This momentum carried through into Q2 with only a slight decrease, but the impact of the Liberation Day volatility was obvious by Q3, with deal volumes down by 14%ⁱⁱ.

And the sluggish market has continued with 2025 YTD deal volumes 10% below the same period in 2024ⁱⁱⁱ.

Regional review

As we look into the numbers, are the trends consistent across regions? Broadly “yes”. Europe, the US, and Asia (excluding Japan) have all seen similar declines (see fig. 1)

We would have expected US exuberance to drive the recovery, but tariffs and the government shutdown have kept activity depressed.

The only major market that has bucked the trend is Japan. Notwithstanding its very real exposure to the tariff tornado, Japanese corporates have driven continued growth in the M&A market. 

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*Appendix

The following table describes the search criteria used for the chart and graph data contained in this report:

References

i  Mergermarket: All reported acquisitions with deal values $75m and above, including those with undisclosed values, across all sectors and geographies - calculated as January to October’25, January to October, and January to October‘25

ii   Mergermarket: All reported acquisitions with deal values $75m and above, including those with undisclosed values, across all sectors and geographies - calculated as January to October’25, January to October, and January to October‘25

iii   Mergermarket: All reported acquisitions with deal values $75m and above, including those with undisclosed values, across all sectors and geographies - calculated as January to October’25, January to October, and January to October‘25 

Disclaimer
DC Advisory has prepared this material solely for informational purposes and it is not a research report. This material does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, or any recommendation with respect to, any securities.

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